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Richard Cumpston Australia

Australian Population Association Eleventh Biennial Conference

University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 to 4 October 2002

Title: Projections of Australia’s population to 2051 by SLA – methods, results & concerns

Author: Richard Cumpston

 

Abstract:

This paper discusses the methods used to give projections of persons and dwellings for

each statistical local area in Australia.

Future numbers of jobs in each industry in Australia are exogenous assumptions, spread

between statistical divisions using statistical models of the distribution of each industry.

Migration probabilities between statistical divisions are based on logistic models fitted to

data from the 1996 census, adjusted to broadly reproduce movements between 1996 and

2001.

Movements within capital city statistical divisions are based on statistical models of the

conversion of vacant land and of dwelling density increases.

Projection results are presented for each statistical division to 2051.

The projection results for some remote statistical divisions show considerable sensitivity

to the parameter choices in the statistical models.

As the methods used are novel, and the projection periods very long, there is great

uncertainty in some of the results.

 

http://www.apa.org.au/upload/2002-3C_Cumpston.pdf

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