Australian Population Association Eleventh Biennial Conference
University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 to 4 October 2002
Title: Projections of Australia’s population to 2051 by SLA – methods, results & concerns
Author: Richard Cumpston
This paper discusses the methods used to give projections of persons and dwellings for
each statistical local area in Australia.
Future numbers of jobs in each industry in Australia are exogenous assumptions, spread
between statistical divisions using statistical models of the distribution of each industry.
Migration probabilities between statistical divisions are based on logistic models fitted to
data from the 1996 census, adjusted to broadly reproduce movements between 1996 and
Movements within capital city statistical divisions are based on statistical models of the
conversion of vacant land and of dwelling density increases.
Projection results are presented for each statistical division to 2051.
The projection results for some remote statistical divisions show considerable sensitivity
to the parameter choices in the statistical models.
As the methods used are novel, and the projection periods very long, there is great
uncertainty in some of the results.