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Richard Cumpston Actuary Australia


Richard has retired from Cumpston Sarjeant. He does however continue to provide some consulting services to Cumpston Sarjeant.


Richard worked as a consulting actuary since 1971, as a partner in ES Knight & Co, a director of William M Mercer Campbell Cook & Knight, a director of John Ford & Associates and Australian general insurance practice leader for Tillinghast Towers-Perrin. In February 1997, together with Hugh Sarjeant, he founded Cumpston Sarjeant Pty Ltd. Nearly all of his consulting work has been in general insurance, and he has published over 100 papers on aspects of general insurance. He has a Master of Engineering Science from Melbourne, a Master of Administration from Monash and is a fellow of the Institute of Actuaries and of the Insitute of Actuaries of Australia.


Prior to forming Cumpston Sarjeant, Richard and Hugh had occupied senior positions in actuarial consulting firms and in offices of government actuaries. They also managed private actuarial consulting practices.  The company started in Melbourne, where the head office is based. In July 2003 they opened a Sydney office, which is now operated by John Rawsthorne.


Cumpston Sarjeant has four actuaries (Hugh Sarjeant, John Rawsthorne, David Heath and Corey Plover), and three actuarial analysts (Paul Thomson, Monika Skaliotis and George El Haber). Richard Cumpston provides some consulting services to Cumpston Sarjeant.



Australian Population Association Eleventh Biennial Conference

University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 to 4 October 2002

Title: Projections of Australia’s population to 2051 by SLA – methods, results & concerns

Author: Richard Cumpston


This paper discusses the methods used to give projections of persons and dwellings for

each statistical local area in Australia.

Future numbers of jobs in each industry in Australia are exogenous assumptions, spread

between statistical divisions using statistical models of the distribution of each industry.

Migration probabilities between statistical divisions are based on logistic models fitted to

data from the 1996 census, adjusted to broadly reproduce movements between 1996 and


Movements within capital city statistical divisions are based on statistical models of the

conversion of vacant land and of dwelling density increases.

Projection results are presented for each statistical division to 2051.  The projection results for some remote statistical divisions show considerable sensitivity to the parameter choices in the statistical models.  As the methods used are novel, and the projection periods very long, there is great  uncertainty in some of the results.



THERE ARE TWO RICHARD CUMPSTON entries recorded on this page.  I am aiming to identify them and need your help. If  you are related please contact me.  Where I can confirm that Richard is the retired Actuary I have placed the detail in a yellow box.  Where there is doubt please see the green boxes


Many thanks.

Stochastic projections of persons, jobs and residences Richard Cumpston


This paper has been written for presentation at the National Conference of the

Australian Population Association, Melbourne, 29/11/00-1/12/00. Richard Cumpston

is a director of Cumpston Sarjeant Pty Ltd, consulting actuaries, Melbourne.


Hugh Sarjeant and I are developing regional projection models, intended to provide

50-100 year projections for each of the 2600 postcodes in Australia. Our work was

initially prompted by CSIRO's need to answer questions such as "Where should a

proposed sewage works, with a 100-year lifetime, be built?". Other government,

commercial and personal applications are possible.


You can read the rest of this at

Australian Population Association Eleventh Biennial Conference

University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 to 4 October 2002


Projections of Australia’s population to 2051 by SLA – methods, results & concerns

Author: Richard Cumpston

Abstract: This paper discusses the methods used to give projections of persons and dwellings for

each statistical local area in Australia.


You can read the rest at

National workers compensation for Australia? : a commentary on the Industry Commission's draft report on workers compensation in Australia / by Richard Cumpston


Book Bib ID 4300678   Format Book  Author Cumpston, Richard  

Description [Sydney, N.S.W.] : Institute of Actuaries of Australia, 1993.  

44 p. ; 21 cm.  Series Sessional meeting ; 1993  Sessional meeting (Institute of Actuaries of Australia) ; Sept./Oct. 1993  Notes "Embargoed until 5pm 27 September 1993"


"This paper was written for presentation at meetings of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia in Sydney on 27 September 1993 and in Melbourne on 4 October 1993."


Bibliography: p. 42-43. Subjects Australia. - Industry Commission. - Workers' compensation in Australia, draft report.  |  Workers compensation - Australia.  |  Social security - Australia. Other Authors Australia. Industry Commission

Problems of costing and controlling a statutory scheme of compensation / by Richard Cumpston


Book Bib ID 2369924  Format Book  Author Cumpston, Richard


Description [Kensington, N.S.W.] : University of New South Wales, Faculty of Law, in conjunction with the New South Wales Law Reform Commission, 1983.  11 p. ; 30 cm.  

 ISBN 0858233746 :  Notes Road traffic. Accidents. Compensation. Law. Reform. New South Wales (ANB/PRECIS SIN 0700118)

Cover title.  At head of title: Accident compensation : the prospects for reform.


Subjects Accident law - New South Wales.  |  Compensation (Law) - New South Wales.  |  Traffic accidents - New South Wales.  |  Liability for traffic accidents - New South Wales.


Other Authors University of New South Wales. Faculty of Law  |  New South Wales. Law Reform Commission Also Titled Accident compensation : the prospects for reform.

May 2004   Fighting for the rights of Australia’s most vulnerable citizens


Richard Cumpston, an actuary works with Judie Stephens.

Investing in Australia during climate change Richard Cumpston and Richard Denniss

Treasury’s October 2008 report on the economics of climate change mitigation was followed in December by the Government’s

White Paper on its carbon pollution reduction scheme. What guidance do these comprehensive reports, and other emerging data, provide to investors in climate-affected industries such as agriculture and tourism, which are now facing large long-term risks?

Greenhouse Gas Issues within Australia’s Electricity Industry Richard Cumpston, Andrew Burge


Today we will discuss..What Emissions? Total Emissions and the Electricity Sector

Electricity Industry Snapshot What’s already being done Where to next The Parer report to COAG Conclusions - • Business as usual is not a genuine option • We have made a start, but • Significant action required, and required quickly • National Leadership is required

Institute of Actuaries of Australia 2003

Institute of Actuaries of Australia IXTH Accident Compensation Seminar, 27-30 October, Hilton, Adelaide (no year given)


11.50am Public Liability Crisis – Causes & Responses

Richard Cumpston (Cumpston Sarjeant)

The ANU Centre for Actuarial Research (CfAR) was established in 2001 for the purpose of promoting quality research into areas of current actuarial interest and fostering important interconnections between the ANU graduate program in actuarial studies and the members of the practicing actuarial profession.


Recent Presentations (since 2006) of Affiliated Staff

Aug 2007:

 Dynamic microsimulations of Australian individuals and households at varying geographic scales  1st general conference of the International Microsimulation Association, Vienna

 Cumpston, J.R.


Current PhD Students (including staff):


Richard Cumpston

 Dynamic microsimulations of Australian households


Mr Richard Cumpston 

PhD Candidate School of Finance & Applied Statistics


Office Location Room 2098, Copland Building 24


Mailing Address School of Finance and Applied Statistics

Crisp Building 026

Australian National University

ACT 0200 Australia

Email  [email protected]

Dynamic Microsimulations of Australian Individuals and Households at Varying Geographic Scales


J Richard Cumpston Cumpston Sarjeant Pty Ltd Consulting Actuaries Level 16, 600 Bourke Street Melbourne Australia 3000 [email protected]

Abstract: This paper is part of work intended to provide microsimulations of Australian individuals and households, at geographic scales and sampling densities selected to match different applications.  A synthesis procedure is described to derive baseline individuals and households for areas as small as the 200 dwellings used as census collection districts in Australia.  Cross-tabulations of data are assumed to be available for each small area, but not unit records. The procedure randomly allocates characteristics to individuals, taking into account their probabilities of having each characteristic.  Individuals are randomly grouped into households, taking into account their probabilities of association.  Replication success rates suggest the synthesis procedure is robust and versatile.

You can

"Microsimulation: Bridging Data and Policy" June 8th to 10th, 2009

Government Conference Centre

2 Rideau Street Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1N 8X5

Day 1 - Monday, June 8


Modeling Techniques I

Gatineau Room 4th floor  


Acceleration, alignment and matching in multi-purpose household microsimulations

Richard Cumpston (JR Cumpston Pty Ltd, consulting actuaries, and a PhD student at the Australian National University)


IAESR Institute Working Paper Series: 1984-1996


7/89  Brian Parmenter and Richard Cumpston  The Economic Effects of Levy-Rate Flattening in Workers Compensation Reforms


Faculty of Economics & Commerce

1999Annual report


Centre for Actuarial Studies


The following paperas were presented at the Seventh Annual Colloquium of Superannuation Researchers held at The University of Melbourne on July 8-9.


Mr Richard Cumpston and Mr Hugh Sarjeant (Cumpston Sarjeant) Estimates of Superannuation Assets in Divorces, and Proposals for Legislative Reform


Mr Richard Cumpston  and Mr Hugh Sarjeant (Cumpston Sarjeant) Stochastic Projections of Australia's Superannuation Contributions and Benefits

LETTER from Richard Cumpston


30 May 2001 to Mrs HJ Owens

Presiding Commissioner, Cost Recovery Inquiry, Locked Bag 2

Collins Street Post Office

Melbourne Vic 8003


Dear Mrs Owens

Draft Recommendations 6.6 and 6.7


I would like to comment briefly on the practical application of your draft recommendations  to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. I made submission  to your inquiry, and gave evidence at your Melbourne hearing on 11/12/00.


To read the rest of the letter click here.

Cumpston Sarjeant Pty Ltd

Level 15, 600 Bourke Street, Melbourne VIC 3000 Tel: (03) 9642 2242 Fax (03) 9642 2254

Email: [email protected] Website:

ABN: 35 076 813 486

12 December 2007 Letter from Richard Cumpston  to

Professor Ross Garnaut Garnaut Climate Change Review Level 2, 1 Treasury Place Melbourne Vic 3002


Dear Professor

Your paper at the inaugural ST Lee Lecture gave us hope that you will recommend urgent and far-ranging action on mitigation and adaptation. We are concerned, however, that

undue regard may be paid to the narrow vested interests that have for so long influenced Australia’s greenhouse gas policies.

You said that “Most of the price impacts, especially in the early period, is likely to be

passed through to households.” Increases in social security benefits, and tax decreases for lower-income households, may be appropriate responses. Wealthier households may

properly be expected to bear some of the pain............


To read the rest of the submission go to :$File/Submission%20to%20review%20%20Cumpston%20Sarjeant%20submission%20to%20Garnaut%20Review%20121207.pdf

Potential costs and savings from structured settlements JR Cumpston MEngSc MAdmin FIA FIAA 24 February 2000  Letter to:

Jane Ferguson The Structured Settlement Group GPO Box 4674 Sydney NSW 1044


Dear Ms Ferguson

Potential costs and savings from structured settlements You have asked me to estimate the potential costs and savings to the Commonwealth from tax-free structured settlements for severely injured persons.

This report sets out details of some UK structured settlements from 1989 to 1996, and uses the more recent experience to derive approximate estimates for Australia. Given tax exemption as in the UK, about 30 to 60 structured settlements a year might be made. The present values of social security and health care savings from these settlements, and of taxes lost on the lump sums these replace, may be about:

Type                                      Source          Lower Estimate        Higher estimate

                                                                             $m pa                          $m pa

Social security savings                       5.7                     2.0                           4.1

Government health care savings           6.5                      4.5                          9.0

Tax on present lump sums                    7.2                     -2.6                         -5.2

Net savings from structured settlements                       3.9                            7.9

These estimates rest on a number of uncertain assumptions. But it seems likely that both savings and costs from tax-exempt structured settlements would be small, and the net savings or costs to the Commonwealth very small. Given the tragic injuries suffered by most recipients of structured settlements, a generous approach may be justified on compassionate as well as economic grounds.


Yours sincerely

Richard Cumpston